Chicago, IL- Having an ace is a comfort zone for many teams in Major League Baseball. That guy at the top of the rotation stands out among his peers. That guy at the top of the rotation goes out there every fifth day, and maintains a level of consistency. That guy at the top of the rotation has the quantities of an ace.
However for the Cubs, the answer of who's an ace has been unsure for a great deal of years. The closest examples the Cubs have had to an ace in the last five years are Matt Garza and Ted Lily. Jeff Samardzija, is the Cubs ace as of today, but he doesn't have ace characteristics. He might have the ability to rack up the strikeouts (8.9 K/9 rate as a starter from 2012-2014), but he doesn't have the ability to limit the damage (4.17 RA9 average from 2012-2014). An ace doesn't give up runs like a mediocre pitcher, and that's why the Cubs don't feel he is worthy of a contract similar to the one the Dodgers gave to Kevin Brown (7 yrs./105 million). Now, Samardzija will probably be traded at the July 2014 trade deadline, but it's okay to let him go because the Cubs will receive a nice package of prospects for the overrated "ace".
After dealing Samardzija, the question will occur again of who will be the ace of the Cubs staff? Edwin Jackson is a definite no-no as the team's number one. Travis Wood is a good pitcher, but isn't worthy of being ranked anything higher than a number three on a contending staff. While Jason Hammel has looked magnificent in a Cubs uniform, he has a mediocre track record, and also will likely be dealt along with Samardija. That means the answer comes down to one more pitcher: Jake Arrieta.
During his years with the Orioles, Jake Arrieta was not the outstanding pitcher he was supposed to be in a not-so-friendly AL East. It wasn't until he came to the Cubs in the Scott Feldman deal last season that he looked solid. Coming to the National League has made Arrieta's career very similar to Chris Carpenter. Like Arrieta, Carpenter pitched in the AL East, but he was a member of the Toronto Blue Jays. As a member of the Cardinals, Carpenter's numbers were 95-44 with an ERA of 3.07. It's also worth noting that he won the Cy Young award in 2005 when he was thirty-years old. One odd thing is that both players came to their new teams when they were twenty-seven years old. If Arrieta can be like Carpenter, the Cubs may have found a treasure for years to come.
So far in his Cubs career, Jake Arrieta has changed his game around. His walk numbers have improved (4.2 BB/9 in 2013 with Cubs compared to 2.9 BB/9 in 2014 with Cubs), and also his strikeout numbers (4.2 K/9 in 2013 with Cubs compared to 9.2 K/9 in 2014 with Cubs). Despite the great improvements on his approach to hitters, Arrieta has limited the damage like an ace (3.07 RA9 with Cubs 2013-2014). Moving forward, the Cubs should label Arrieta as their ace because he truly is one.
-Daniel (DanielDoreCTC)
(All stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com)
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